MODEL PREDIKSI KEJADIAN DEMAM BERDARAH DENGUE (DBD) BERDASARKAN FAKTOR IKLIM DI KOTA BOGOR, JAWA BARAT

Jusniar Ariati, Athena Anwar

MODEL PREDIKSI KEJADIAN DEMAM BERDARAH DENGUE (DBD) BERDASARKAN FAKTOR IKLIM DI KOTA BOGOR, JAWA BARAT

Abstract


Abstract
Dengue Hemorrhagic Fever (DHF) presents a serious health problem in Indonesia. Dengue viruses are transmitted to human through the biting of infected mosquitoes, especially Aedes aegypti and Ae. albopictus.The occurrence of variation and climate change will Affect the growth areas of mosquitoes. This situation can influence on the emergence of dengue fever cases. In this paper will discuss the predictions of the mathematical model of considering the incidence of DHF with climatic factors. The research design was a retrospective study with the data collected is dengue incidence and climate include temperature, rainfall, humidity and rainy days since 2002-2010. Data analysis was performed using Minitab 16.0 software statistical time series. The results showed that R2 varied between 0.65 to 0.99. The highest R2 value of the regression equation obtained in August, September and October is 0.99 and the lowest in April with a R2
value of 0.65. The results of predictions based on 4 predictors
(precipitation, rainy days, temperature and humidity) with the incidence of DHF is actually not much different, except in April. It can be concluded that according to linear predictive models of dengue is influenced by climatic factors (precipitation, rainy days, temperature and humidity) 2 months before and 1 month prior dengue incidence.

Keywords : Dhf, Climate, Prediction Model

Abstrak
Demam Berdarah Dengue (DBD) merupakan salah satu masalah kesehatan di Indonesia. Aedes aegyptisebagai vektor utama penyakit DD/DBD kehidupannya dipengaruhi oleh faktor iklim, diantaranya suhu, kelembaban udara, curah hujan dan hari hujan. Berbagai upaya
pengendalian  telah   dilakukan  namun  belum   menurunkan  jumlah  kasus  secara  signifikan, sehingga diperlukan model untuk memprediksi kejadian DBD di suatu wilayah sehingga kejadiannya dapat diantisipasi. Dalam tulisan ini akan membahas model matematika prediksi
kejadian DBD dengan mempertimbangkan faktor iklim. Disain penelitian adalah studi retrospektif dengan data yang dikumpulkan adalah kejadian DBD dan iklim yang meliputi suhu, curah hujan, hari hujan dan kelembaban sejak tahun 2002-2010. Analisis data dilakukan secara time series menggunakan minitab statistical software 16.0. Hasil analisis mendapatkan model prediksi kejadian DBD dipengaruhi oleh fungsi empat faktor iklim, yaitu curah hujan, hari hujan, suhu dan kelembaban pada lag time2.

Kata kunci : Demam Berdarah, Faktor Iklim, Model Prediksi


Keywords


Demam Berdarah, Faktor Iklim, Model Prediksi

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Buletin Penelitian Kesehatan (Bulletin of Health Research, p-ISSN: 0125-9695. e-ISSN: 2338-3453) is published by Badan Penelitian dan Pengembangan Kesehatan, Ministry of Health of Republic of Indonesia
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